Las Vegas Economic Forecast, or “I’m going to wait until the market crashes!”

I’ve heard it from a few people. One of them is sitting on over $130,000.00 in cash. Waiting for another 2008 market collapse.  The thing is, that money under your mattress, it’s loosing value every year due to inflation. Sure, real estate goes up & down cyclically but nobody knows exactly when those cycles hit.  There were a lot of investors in 2000-2005 who cashed out, assured we were at the peak.  I’m not telling you to time the market.

What I am saying is that the devaluation of your money is non-cyclical, and certain.  Grandpa always says when he was your age a gumball was a penny, not 25 cents.  Are you planning on buying a home, moving in, making it your own & moving out next year?  Probably not.  5-7 years maybe.  Long term inflation average between 1913 & 2013 according to InflationData.com is 3.22%.  Here’s the kicker.  Inflation of 3.22% doesn’t seem that bad to those who don’t understand the power of compounding, but as the article goes on to mention, that compound effect means an actual item that cost $100 in 1914 would now cost you $2,375.00.  As we keep printing money, homes will always be built from materials, on land, the cost of both will be affected by inflation.  So, if you need 200 2×4’s, 2,000 sq ft of flooring, etc. to build a home, and then the cost of the land.. it’s total price is all affected by inflation or the compounding devaluation of the dollar.

So yes, home prices will go up, and they will go down.. and then they will go up again but buyer’s aren’t getting homes at the prices of 30 years ago. What won’t change is your need for a place to live.  If you’re currently renting a decent 3 bedroom home in Las Vegas, and say you’re paying $1,600/month.. you’re paying $19,200/year and when you move you’ll have nothing to show for it but a U-haul bill.  If over that statistical 5-7 years you’d be in the place, you could have been paying $96,000-$134,400 towards ownership of an asset that will adjust with inflation (among other factors).  Yes, there are other factors that will adjust the value of your home than inflation, however when you look at something like gold, which some say is a solid hedge against inflation… there are other factors that affect the price of gold as well (such as stock market dips and advertisements on how safe gold is); and you can’t live in your gold.

“I’m waiting for the price of homes to drop due to rising mortgage rates!”  This is another one I’ve heard.  Thing is for most primary residence buyers, if there were a direct correlation of price reduction to interest rate hikes, the result would be no change in your monthly payment.  Unfortunately for those who haven’t dug a little deeper, there is actually an inverse correlation historically.  I could explain, but there is already a good article posted here on First American’s website.

The link above references a strong economy making housing less affordable.  As we look locally, the Las Vegas area economy is seeing over 13 billion in new capital investment, and people moving here (your competition when home buying) are younger and wealthier than before.  For more of these figures and data, see research posted here at California Credit Union League’s research on Southern Nevada.

So with a growing local economy, rising interest rates, rising home prices year over year, your savings devaluing annually, and about $19,000.00 you’re paying in rent each year, tell me again why you’re waiting to buy?

As you drive around the valley, I’m sure you’ll notice a ridiculous number of apartment projects being built.  Do you think the companies pouring millions into those projects didn’t do their homework?  They know plenty of people won’t take action today, and will be mailing them checks every month so we can ‘afford’ to live and work here.  Don’t be one of those income streams for these corporations.  Call or email me today and let us help you get on a better path to financial freedom and home ownership, Las Vegas.

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