Las Vegas Economic Forecast, or “I’m going to wait until the market crashes!”

I’ve heard it from a few people. One of them is sitting on over $130,000.00 in cash. Waiting for another 2008 market collapse.  The thing is, that money under your mattress, it’s loosing value every year due to inflation. Sure, real estate goes up & down cyclically but nobody knows exactly when those cycles hit.  There were a lot of investors in 2000-2005 who cashed out, assured we were at the peak.  I’m not telling you to time the market.

What I am saying is that the devaluation of your money is non-cyclical, and certain.  Grandpa always says when he was your age a gumball was a penny, not 25 cents.  Are you planning on buying a home, moving in, making it your own & moving out next year?  Probably not.  5-7 years maybe.  Long term inflation average between 1913 & 2013 according to InflationData.com is 3.22%.  Here’s the kicker.  Inflation of 3.22% doesn’t seem that bad to those who don’t understand the power of compounding, but as the article goes on to mention, that compound effect means an actual item that cost $100 in 1914 would now cost you $2,375.00.  As we keep printing money, homes will always be built from materials, on land, the cost of both will be affected by inflation.  So, if you need 200 2×4’s, 2,000 sq ft of flooring, etc. to build a home, and then the cost of the land.. it’s total price is all affected by inflation or the compounding devaluation of the dollar.

So yes, home prices will go up, and they will go down.. and then they will go up again but buyer’s aren’t getting homes at the prices of 30 years ago. What won’t change is your need for a place to live.  If you’re currently renting a decent 3 bedroom home in Las Vegas, and say you’re paying $1,600/month.. you’re paying $19,200/year and when you move you’ll have nothing to show for it but a U-haul bill.  If over that statistical 5-7 years you’d be in the place, you could have been paying $96,000-$134,400 towards ownership of an asset that will adjust with inflation (among other factors).  Yes, there are other factors that will adjust the value of your home than inflation, however when you look at something like gold, which some say is a solid hedge against inflation… there are other factors that affect the price of gold as well (such as stock market dips and advertisements on how safe gold is); and you can’t live in your gold.

“I’m waiting for the price of homes to drop due to rising mortgage rates!”  This is another one I’ve heard.  Thing is for most primary residence buyers, if there were a direct correlation of price reduction to interest rate hikes, the result would be no change in your monthly payment.  Unfortunately for those who haven’t dug a little deeper, there is actually an inverse correlation historically.  I could explain, but there is already a good article posted here on First American’s website.

The link above references a strong economy making housing less affordable.  As we look locally, the Las Vegas area economy is seeing over 13 billion in new capital investment, and people moving here (your competition when home buying) are younger and wealthier than before.  For more of these figures and data, see research posted here at California Credit Union League’s research on Southern Nevada.

So with a growing local economy, rising interest rates, rising home prices year over year, your savings devaluing annually, and about $19,000.00 you’re paying in rent each year, tell me again why you’re waiting to buy?

As you drive around the valley, I’m sure you’ll notice a ridiculous number of apartment projects being built.  Do you think the companies pouring millions into those projects didn’t do their homework?  They know plenty of people won’t take action today, and will be mailing them checks every month so we can ‘afford’ to live and work here.  Don’t be one of those income streams for these corporations.  Call or email me today and let us help you get on a better path to financial freedom and home ownership, Las Vegas.


It May Be Cold Outside, But January is a Hot Time To Buy Las Vegas Real Estate.

This time last year, our family purchased a new home in Mountain’s Edge, a great community in the South West of Las Vegas.  We were scouring the MLS for two months looking for a perfect place to call home for an expanding family.  Our first contract was on a home a bit bigger than we needed.  It was owned by a California investor who’d let deferred maintenance pile up and was unwilling to negotiate for repairs that would be needed.  The balcony had a crack in the flooring that the inspector said may or may not be a big issue.  Luckily it rained two days before the end of our due diligence period & I was able to bring a moisture meter to check the absorption.  Turns out the entire plywood surface under the stucco had absorbed so much water it would present and un-safe structural issue.  This repair alone would total about $10,000.00.  The rest of the drywall, plumbing, and stucco repair would be about another $10,000.00!

Because of this blessing in disguise, we had already been approved by our lender’s underwriter, meaning they had checked off all of the boxes they needed to be sure they could loan us all the money we’d need.  Once we decided we weren’t going to buy a home that the seller wouldn’t concede on cost to make it fit, we canceled the contract.  What we lost was the cost of inspection, and appraisal; about $1,000.00 in total.  What we kept, by navigating our contract properly was our earnest money deposit.. and our underwriting approval.

We took both and continued our shopping.  Viewing a few more homes with more clarity on what was necessary, and what was negotiable in our wish list. We found a home more nicely appointed and certainly more well cared for in the same area.. for $40,000.00 less.  Because we’d narrowed down what we really needed and where we wanted to be, we found our new home before the sign was even up in the yard (use the MLS, not Zillow!)  We submitted an offer with prior underwriting approval from the last deal that went south.  This isn’t the same as coming in with cash, but it is a close second meaning the likelihood of our contract coming to fruition is much better than those competitors who have only a pre-qualification.

By getting the home under contract in January when competition is less than the peak season, we were able to purchase the home before the busy summer months when it had already appreciated $15-$20,000.00 due to the competition driving prices up.  By having our financing in a more secure position than many others, our seller’s agent told the 4 other offers that came in to not even bother submitting.  Assurance we CAN close can be better than even a few thousand hypothetical more dollars to the seller (it’s not always about the highest bid!).

If you’re thinking of buying a new home at any point this year, the best time to start getting a plan together is right away.  There is a lot to consider and a lot to prepare, especially for your financing if you’re not planning to buy with cash.  A good Las Vegas area Realtor can assist you with this checklist so you’re in the best position to buy, be it this month or further down the road.  I look forward to hearing from you & seeing how we can best prepare you for a great transaction, and a smooth transition to your new home.  You can contact me at SteveChristmas@gmail.com or call me at the number listed in our Contact section.


Buying a New Construction Home, The Right Way.

When you’re looking to buy a home, you have many options.  If you’re looking at a new construction home rather than a pre-existing one, you’ll be given an entire list of options, much like buying a new car.  Many of these upgrades offered by builders are places for them to maximize their profits.   By positioning themselves as a “one stop shop” they can make the process as simple as checking boxes with dollar signs next to them.  The simplicity of saying ‘I’d like quartz counter tops, this tile flooring, these cabinets, etc’ can be alluring, but you’re trading your time for top-dollar prices on materials & labor.

How many smaller items do you purchase without shopping around? If you’re furnishing your home do you walk into a store & “say I need a couch”, take what ever they bring out to your car & pay what ever they’re asking?  If you do, stop reading, I can’t help you.  These upgrades, while much smaller in price than say a car, or a home itself, can add up very quickly.  Perhaps you could assess the upgrades offered & select the ones most important to you, then buy the new home from a builder,  and get multiple bids from quality contractors that can even do a better job, with better products, for less money.  Doing this means you’ve added value to your home for less expense thereby creating net worth for yourself when it comes time to sell or refinance.

Now one more thing to keep in mind, is the idea of diminishing returns.  Meaning Read More